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Macroeconomics

publié le mercredi 16 décembre 2009

ARMENIAN GDP, EXPORTS CONTINUE RAPID CONTRACTION DURING OCTOBER
/NOV 23/ World Markets Research Centre - Global Insight/Venla Sipila/
Armenia’s economy collapsed by 17.5% year-on-year (y/y) in January-October, In October alone, GDP contracted by 5.1% from September. Coming after the January-September contraction of 18.3% y/y, these most recent figures suggest some moderation in the rate of annual output decrease in October.
However, this does not provide much reason for cheer, especially compared with the very respectable economic growth rate of 9.2% y/y seen in the first 10 months of last year.
Significance :Whereas the severe collapse of the Armenian economy now should start to ease, as cautiously suggested by the latest data, the still worse-than-expected performance in the third quarter justified yet another downward revision in IHS Global Insight’s Armenian GDP forecast in the November round.
We expect 2009 annual contraction to somewhat exceed the lower end of the government’s forecast of a 10-15% fall.
The extreme severity of the current Armenian economic conditions, including its major liquidity pressures, has been underlined by the fact that it has had to seek revisions to its stand-by arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has approved changes to programme terms and payment schedules (seeArmenia : 3 November 2009 :).

ECONOMIC CRISIS WILL NOT LEAD TO REDUCTION IN PENSIONS IN ARMENIA IN 2010
/NOV 25/ArmInfo/
Armenia’s national budget 2010 does not envisage reduction in pensions and other social payments because of the economic crisis.
The minimum pension will remain 8,000 AMD ($21) with the average pension being 26,900 AMD.
In 2012 the average pension will be equal to the minimum consumer basket - 37,000-38,000 AMD ($100). If in 2010 the economic growth will be high, in 2011 the pension will be increased so as to compensate for unscheduled growths.
No rise in pension will not lead to social disadvantages as in 2009 inflation is not high. In the last three years the pension has grown much quicker than the inflation.

ARMENIA STATE DEBT TO REACH $3.5 BILLION BY YEAREND
/NOV 27/ARKA/
Chairman of the Union of Armenian Commodity Producers, Vazgen Safarian, said today Armenia’s state debt will make 46% of the GDP by the end of this year if the government does not take swift action to improve economic situation. Speaking at a news conference he said Armenia’s state debt will stand at $3.5 billion by the end of the year and if the government does nothing to revert the course Armenia may hit soon the 50% edge and become insolvent with all ensuing negative consequences.
Earlier this month speaking at the parliament during a debate on 2010 budget Armenian prime minister Tigran Sarkisian said the state debt is expected to stand at $2.2 billion at the end of the year. The 2010 draft budget says the country’s state debt in 2010 may reach $3.9 million. According to Vazgen Safarian, the government needs to implement a set of sweeping economic reforms, particularly, to pass a law on industry revival and establish industry development ministry, to help economy get out of the crisis.
Earlier finance minister Tigran Davtian said the state debt in 2009 will be within permissible level of 50% ratio to GDP.

ARMENIAN SYSTEM OF BENEFITS NEEDS SUBSTANTIAL REVISION
/NOV 27/ARKA/
Hakob Hakobyan, chairman of National Assembly’s standing committee on social affairs, said Thursday at a press conference.
He thinks faults of the system leaves room for persons having stable earnings to submit forged papers and receive benefits.
  more than 16,000 illegal beneficiaries were removed from lists in 2009 alone that as a result of scrutiny.
  the government can’t help those in need while illegal beneficiaries remain included in the lists.
  Armenia has 100,000 poor people whose pension or benefit amount to AMD 8,000.
  The government earmarked AMD 242.4 billion in the 2010 state budget for social expenses. The share of social expenses in GDP is 7.5%.
  The government earmarked AMD 31 billion for paying benefits to low-income families in 2010 against this year’s 32.3 billion.
  One family benefit will average AMD 23,000 in 2010.
  The lump-sum state benefit for third birth in a family was left unchanged at AMD 430,000.
  The monthly benefit for care of up-to-two-year-old babies was left unchanged as well - at AMD 18,000.
  Pensions remained the same and even rose due to changes in rates.
  Pension will amount to AMD 25,700 in 2010 against 25,500 now.
  Basic pension is set at AMD 8,000 for 2010.
  The 2010 state budget revenue is AMD 676.6 billion, expenditure AMD 859.6 billon and deficit AMD 183 billion.
  One dollar is expected to cost AMD 376 in 2010.

JETRO REPRESENTATIVE TO VISIT ARMENIA
/Nov 27/ARKA/
A representative of the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) will pay a visit to Armenia to establish new business contacts with local businessmen, Armenian foreign ministry said.
It said the agreement to this end was reached in Tokyo by the visiting Armenian foreign minister Edward Nalbandian and JETRO president Yasup Khayashi. Edward Nalbandian is visiting Japan at the invitation of its government.
The foreign ministry in Yerevan said Nalbandian and JETRO president discussed chances of developing Armenian-Japanese trade and economic cooperation. It said the Armenian minister presented the investment climate of Armenia.
JETRO, or the Japan External Trade Organization, is a government-related organization that works to promote mutual trade and investment between Japan and the rest of the world. Originally established in 1958 to promote Japanese exports abroad, JETRO’s core focus in the 21st century has shifted toward promoting foreign direct investment into Japan and helping small to medium size Japanese firms maximize their global export potential.

EBRD TO DEVELOP SUBWAY, TROLLEY PARKS AND PAID PARKING LOTS IN YEREVAN
/NOV 27/ARKA/
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the City of Yerevan will cooperate in development programs of the underground metro, trolley parks, and fee based parking lots.
According to the report, the EBRD will provide both consultations and credit funds. An agreement on the implementation of these programs, according to preliminary agreement will be signed in January of next year.

ABOUT 63 BEGINNER ENTREPRENEURS HAVE RECEIVED LOANS DURING THE RUNNING YEAR WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF UN’S "SUPPORT TO SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES SPHERE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM"
/NOV 30/ARMENPRESS/
Totally 78 million AMD have been provided for crediting. This year within the framework of the program entrepreneurs have an opportunity to receive up to 2 million AMD loan.
In the previous year they had an opportunity to receive up to 1 million AMD.
The program is being carried out in the provinces of the republic.
Before providing the loan, applications are being gathered, and the authors present their programs. During the next round classes are being conducted after which the project is being presented to a commission which consists of representatives of UN, other donor organizations and consultants.
After passing the test and interview rounds, the best projects are being selected.
The presented programs are of different nature - processing of fish, lobsters, cheese, production of canned fruit, service sphere activity.
The consulting works continue after the end of classes as well.
Meetings are being organized during which the results are being discussed.

DUTY FREE ZONE MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS
/NOV 30/Aysor/
"For two years we have been discussing the possible ways of development with the concessionaire and we will soon see the results," said Deputy Minister of Economy Vahe Danielyan in connection with the Duty Free zone that had been opened for about a year ago at Armenian Zvartnots International Airport.
Obviously Armenian legislation in sense of tax break is not different from those of other countries’ : at Armenian Duty Free zone, in accordance with the Law, there is no taxing on profits, VAT, customs fee, but income tax as long as all products to be exported. Only 5 per cent of the products can be sold in Armenia while in this case only VAT and customs fees are levied.
"The Free Duty zone can cause problems for local, domestic producer.
The project must have clear citing on steps to be taken to prevent the situation when the duty free zones are in competition with domestic producer, nor foreign," said Danielyan.

NA SPEAKER-LED DELEGATION TO PAY OFFICIAL VISIT TO KOREA
/NOV 30/PanARMENIAN.Net/
By the invitation of Korean Parliament Speaker Kim Hyong-o, Armenia’s parliamentary delegation, under the leadership of Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan, will carry out a four-day official visit to Korea starting from December 2. Delegation consists of Head of National Assembly staff Gegham Garibjanyan and MPs Hovhannes Margaryan, Armen Abrahamyan and Ara Nranyan.
Armenian delegation will have meetings with Korean Parliament Speaker Kim Hyong-o, Prime Minister Chung Un-chan and members of Korea-Armenia parliamentary friendship group.
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